|
|
|
THE |
 |
MONITOR |
|
Keeping
Our Finger On The Pulse Of The Retail Industry |
|
Volume VII,
Issue 12 |
December 2009 | |
|
 |
Hart Systems, LLC
is the rental
solution for inventory scanning.
We Make Self-Inventory Simple!
Contact us to find out how we may help you improve your
physical inventory process.
|
Happy
Holidays
 |
November Sales Sluggish - Sales Slip 0.3% |
In a stunning step backward, the
nation’s retailers saw sales fall in November- a dismal start to the
holidays and a gloomy sign for the rest of the season. After two
months of year-over-year gains that analysts hoped signaled the
beginning of an industry turnaround, retailers suffered a 0.3%
decline in the crucial November month, the International Council of
Shopping Centers said today. That was far worse than the original 5%
to 8% growth forecast, which was pared down to a 3% to 4% gain
earlier this week. The weak results come on top of a 7.7% drop a
year ago.
Black Friday weekend failed to give retailers the big boost they
had hoped as many chains reported weak results in November. As
of Thursday morning, Thomson Reuters, which tracks monthly
same-store sales for 30 chains such as Target, Gap and J.C. Penney,
said 15 of the retailers in its Same Store Sales Index have reported
their results. Of those 15, 85% missed analysts' sales estimates
while 15% beat expectations.
Apparel retailers were hit especially hard as consumers continue to
hold back on discretionary spending.
Among the bright spots were: |
• Limited Brands, whose same-store sales
rose 3% in the month ended Nov. 28, beating the 2.5% estimated
decline in an analyst survey by
Thomson Reuters.
• Victoria's Secret stores posted a 3% gain, compared with analysts'
estimate of a 5.3% drop.
• At The Buckle, same-store sales increased 1.4%, less than analysts
expected. |
In other apparel specialty same-store
sales results for November:
• Gap said its same-store sales remained flat in November, helped by
a strong performance from its Old Navy stores. Analysts surveyed by
Thomson Reuters predicted an increase of 0.1%
• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. said Thursday that sales in its stores
that have been open at least a year fell 17% in November, worse than
analysts predicted.
• American Eagle’s same-store sales fell 2%, in line with
expectations.
• Wet Seal saw its dip 5% in November, hurt by soft results at its
namesake stores. But the performance beat the estimates of analysts.
• Destination Maternity Corp. said unfavorable weather, a difficult
comparison and the ongoing struggles of the retail sector during the
recession contributed to an 11.6% drop in its same-store sales. Its
results were in line with expectations |
Black Friday Verdict: Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down |
Americans Spent $41.2 Billion Over
Holiday Weekend
As the closely-watched Black Friday weekend winds down, a National
Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the
expected: more people spent less. According to NRF’s Black Friday
shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers
visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 172
million last year. These results differ from the prediction in
the survey conducted by Persuadable Research for online shopping, as
reported by CNBC on November 20th, which found just 46 percent of
respondents plan to “definitely” shop on Black Friday this year, a
12 percent drop from those who took to the stores in 2008.
However, the average spending over the weekend dropped to $343.31
per person from $372.57 a year ago. Total spending reached an
estimated $41.2 billion. “Shoppers proved this weekend that they
were willing to open their wallets for a bargain, heading out to
take advantage of great deals on less expensive items like toys,
small appliances and winter clothes,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF
President and CEO. “While retailers are encouraged by the number of
Americans who shopped over Black Friday weekend, they know they have
their work cut out for them to keep people coming back through
Christmas. Shoppers can continue to expect retailers to focus on low
prices and bargains through the end of December.”
Shoppers’ destination of choice over the past weekend seemed to
be department stores, with nearly half (49.4%) of holiday shoppers
visiting at least one, a 12.9 percent increase from last year.
Discount retailers took an uncharacteristic back seat, with 43.2
percent of holiday shoppers heading to discount stores over the
weekend and another 7.8 percent heading to outlet stores. Shoppers
also visited electronics stores (29.0%), clothing stores (22.9%),
and grocery stores (19.6%).One fourth of Americans shopping over the
weekend (28.5%) were shopping online.
“In an economy like this one, every retailer wants to be a
discounter,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. “Department
stores have done an admirable job touting both low prices and good
quality, which are important requirements for holiday shoppers on a
budget.”
According to the survey, nearly one-third (32.2%) of shoppers
purchased toys, an increase of 12.9 percent from last year.
Additionally, more people purchased sporting goods (12.6% vs. 11.4%
last year), personal care or beauty items (22.4% vs. 19.0%) and gift
cards (21.2% vs. 18.7%). The most popular purchases were of clothing
(0.9%) and books (40.3%), which remained nearly unchanged over last
year.
In order to nab the best holiday items, more shoppers headed out
for bargains while it was still dark outside. According to the
survey, nearly one-third of shoppers (31.2%) were at the stores by 5
a.m., compared with 23.3 percent who were at stores by that time
last year.
“During a more robust economy, people may be inclined to hit the
“snooze” button on Black Friday, but high unemployment and a focus
on price caused shoppers to visit stores early in anticipation of
the best deals,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic
Initiatives, BIGresearch. |
For
Holiday Spending, Cash Is King! |
|
Credit Cards
Use, Not So Much Anymore. |
“The percentage of consumers who will pay for holiday gifts with
cash or debit cards instead of credit cards is expected to rise this
year, a trend that could further depress holiday sales,”
according the NRF in an article by USA Today.
Approximately 71% of consumers plan to use cash or debit cards as
their primary payment method this holiday shopping season, the
highest since 2005, according to a recent National Retail
Federation survey. Another survey by USAA, San Antonio-based
financial services firm, found that two-thirds of consumers plan to
use cash more for holiday gifts this year than last year.
“A shift away from cre``.dit cards could make what is expected to be
a difficult holiday season even more challenging for retailers.
Store clerks have long found that it's easier to persuade people who
are using credit cards instead of cash to spend more than they were
intending,” notes NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis.
“Not only that, but when consumers use credit cards to shop, they're
more likely to buy in the first place,” according to James Roberts,
professor of marketing at Baylor University in Waco, Texas.”
“Consumers are more frugal when they use cash, because they're
acutely aware of how much money they're pulling out of their
wallets”, says Sue Fogel, chairwoman of marketing at DePaul
University in Chicago. “With credit cards,” she continues, "it
doesn't seem quite as real."
Robert Frank, professor of economics at Cornell University comments,
“Debit cards fall somewhere between cash and credit cards. Paying
with a debit card isn't quite as palpable and vivid as using cash,
but it does have an immediate impact on the amount of money a
consumer has left to spend.”
The NRF survey found that 28.3% of consumers plan to use credit
cards most often when buying holiday gifts this year, down from
31.5% last year. Close to a third of consumers used credit cards for
such purchases not so long ago in 2007. According to Davis from the
NRF, “The shift away from credit cards isn't all bad. If people
are relying less on credit for holiday purchases this year,
retailers hope they will be in a better position to spend for the
future." |
Operation Gratitude |
Join the Hart Systems family this
holiday season in sending Holiday Cheer and Best Wishes to our brave
men and women in the service who are spending their holidays away
from home and their loved ones.
You can send Holiday cards to:
| |
Operation Gratitude
16444 Refugio Road
Encino, CA 91436 |
|
For more information on this and other ways of spreading cheer now
and throughout the year, logon to Operation Gratitude website
www.operationgratitude.com |
Top
Ten Holiday Trends for 2009 |
As reported in Retail’s BIG Blog and
largely based on the NRF’s holiday survey, conducted by BIGresearch,
the following are ten insights of what to expect this holiday
season.
#1: Americans aren’t ready to declare an end to the
recession. Americans will not believe the recession is over
until they see a reduction in unemployment. An increase in stock
market activity might be great news for high-end retailers; however,
it’s not helping retailers who cater to Middle America.
#2: It’s all about the economy. People are making
changes to gifts this year (more practical gifts, joint gifts or
making gifts) as well as using last year’s decorations. The economy
will also dictate where people shop this year, with 70% planning to
head to discounters.
#3: Sales and promotions are king. With 2009, the
holiday season of the bargain hunter, more than half of people say
that sales or everyday low prices will be the deciding factor on
where they buy. Retailers, who have scaled back on inventory, are
telling consumers to shop early, while consumers, who are used to
waiting to the last minute for good deals, might plan to hold out
for better sales. Retailers are expected to market heavily on the
front end to entice shoppers into the stores.
#4: Pay attention to payment methods. Consumers don’t
like the increase in credit card minimums and the increase in
interest rates. Many consumers may shy away from credit cards and
this could bode well for retailers that offer layaway.
#5: It’s the thought that counts. Greeting card
spending won’t experience as dramatic of a drop as many other
categories. Americans say they’ll spend 2% less on greeting cards
this year (compared with 17% less on friends and 15% less on
co-workers).
#6: This is the season to eat. Candy and food spending
is up about $10 per person and was the only category that rose in
the entire survey. “People may be giving gifts of a pie or cookies
instead of buying them something, or they might invite others over
to the house for a get-together,” says Phil Rist of BIGresearch.
#7: Gift cards aren’t dead. When asking people what
they wanted to receive this year, gift cards were the only category
that saw an increase.
#8: When looking at store sales, consider the Internet.
The web will influence one in three holiday purchases this year, and
retailers are using the internet not only as a sales channel but
also as a marketing vehicle.
#9: Don’t discount department stores. Young adults,
aged 18-24, are more likely to shop at department stores than
anywhere else during the holiday season. Young adults are the most
likely to wait until the last minute to shop, meaning a large
portion of department store sales might come in very close to
Christmas.
#10: Impulse Spending? The number of people who plan
to make additional, non-gift purchases for themselves or their
family declined this year, and those who will make additional
purchases will also spend less on them. |
Bah, Humbug Is What Shoppers Are Saying About Holiday Shopping |
Retailerdaily.com reports that according
to the new Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll 65% of consumers
plan to cut back on overall holiday expenses.
The NRF released two primarily negative holiday forecasts. The
Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey expect that consumers
will spend an average of $682.74 on holiday-related shopping this
year, down from $705.01 last year.
The NRF’s negative Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey
follows its negative 2009 holiday forecast, projecting holiday
retail industry sales to decline 1% this year, from $441.97 billion
to $437.6 billion.
There are mixed predictions as to how retail will fare this holiday
season. Deloitte’s 24th Annual Holiday Survey indicates that gift
purchases will drop while other related holiday purchases will rise.
The purchase of gifts is expected to go down 15% from $532 in
2008 to $452 in 2009. An average of $1,145 on non-gift spending,
such as socializing away from home and decorations, is expected to
go up approximately 16% from 2008.
Deloitte Retail Group expects total 2009 holiday sales to have a 0%
change from 2008, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, remaining
flat at $810 billion from November 2009 – January 2010. This would
be an improvement from last season’s reported 2.4% decrease, the
first decline in holiday sales according to Deloitte’s analysis of
Commerce Department data dating back to1967.
The Holiday Forecast from comparison shopping site PriceGrabber.com
points to 53% of consumers spending less on holiday shopping this
year than last year; an improvement over last year when 71% of
consumers expected to decrease their annual holiday spending.
Additional 2009 holiday spending forecasts with results ranging from
pessimistic to mildly hopeful have been provided by other
organizations. In spite of a predicted 15% increase in the number of
consumers planning to spend less this holiday season, the retail
market research NPD Group still predicts a 0.5-1.5% increase in 2009
holiday spending compared to 2008. |
Movers & Shakers |
|
People you
know, who are on the go… |
This monthly installment to The Hart
Monitor includes executive moves within the retail industry as
reported in publications such as WWD, Hoover's, and various other
sources.
Starbucks:
Former Microsoft executive Kalen Holmes is now EVP, partner
resources at coffee retailer Starbucks.
CVS Caremark:
At pharmacy chain CVS Caremark, David Denton will become EVP
and CFO on January 1. He will succeed CFO Dave Rickard, who
is retiring. Meanwhile, VP Laird Daniels replaces Denton
as SVP, controller, and chief accounting officer.
Raley's:
COO Dave Clark has become interim president as former
president and CEO Bill Coyne leaves supermarket company
Raley's.
Michael Foods:
Former The Stop & Shop Supermarket Company executive Jim Dwyer
is now president and CEO at egg product producer Michael Foods. He
succeeds Gregg Ostrander, who remained chairman.
Walt Disney:
At entertainment giant Walt Disney, Tom Staggs, SEVP and CFO,
will trade titles with Jay Rasulo, chairman of Walt Disney
Parks and Resorts, at year-end. Meanwhile, at Walt Disney Studios
marketing president Jim Gallagher will be leaving and Greg
Brandeau, formerly technology VP at subsidiary Pixar Animation
Studios, will have the new position of chief technology officer.
Best Buy:
Bob Willett, international CEO at Best Buy will be retiring
at the end of the year. The consumer electronics retailer does not
plan to replace him.
rue21:
Arnold S. Barron, former Senior Executive Vice President,
Group President of The TJX Companies, has been appointed to serve as
an independent member of the Company’s Board of Directors. Mr.
Barron fills a directorship vacated by Mark F. Darrel.
|
Every issue of The Hart
Monitor will contain a 'TIPS' section of helpful information regarding
Inventory or Loss Prevention for retailers, including some of the
industry's "Best Practices." If you have any Inventory or LP
tips that you'd like to share, please
CLICK HERE
|
|
|
|
Provide Food on Inventory Day |
It may sound like a trivial item, but
providing food and beverages during your physical inventory has many
positive benefits. These include keeping your staff’s energy level up,
reducing employee breaks and downtime, making the whole experience
more “enjoyable”, adding to a team atmosphere, etc.
Consider this scenario: you have a physical inventory scheduled to
begin at 6:00am - your managers and associates arrive at the store at
5:45am, and they’re not exactly bright-eyed. However, you have fresh
coffee and donuts waiting for them! Suddenly, everyone is happier,
feeling refreshed, and ready to pitch in with the task at hand.
For an evening inventory, a couple of pizza pies and sodas at the
mid-point of the inventory has the same positive results and also
keeps your staff from leaving the store and taking breaks.
Some food for thought: When you order food, keep it simple.
Circulating around menus for people to choose from, and then figuring
out who gets what, can be more of a headache than it’s worth. Also,
don’t schedule everyone to eat at once – divide the group into two or
three smaller groups, and stagger their eating schedule. This keeps
the inventory process moving along, and prevents bottlenecks from
developing. |
|
|
 |
|
To learn more about
how we can help you achieve your physical inventory goals, please
call us at 800-252-2818, click here -Tell Me More- to send an
e-mail, or visit our website at
http://www.hartsystems.com/. |
|
To view a previous
Hart Monitor, click September,
October,
November |
|
Each month, the Hart Monitor is sent out to over 7,500 executives in
the retail community. |
|
Sign up a friend.
Have any friends or colleagues in the retail world that may be
interested in receiving this information periodically? We'll be
happy to send them our free newsletter! Click here -Send
to a Friend- and put the e-mail address in the body of the
message.
|
|
To change your e-mail
address, click here -Change
My Address- and include your new address in the body of the
e-mail.
|
|
To unsubscribe, send
an email to
HartMonitor@hartsystems.com with the word "Unsubscribe" in the
subject line of the message.
© 2009 Hart Systems,
LLC
|
|
Hart Quote !!! |
|
“Wishing
You and Your Families a Very Happy Holiday Season
And a Prosperous New Year!” |
|
Hart Systems Family
(1964 – present) The Self Inventory Experts |
|
Hart Systems, LLC
60 Plant Ave
Hauppauge, NY 11788 |
|
